Around the AFC West, Week 13 Review

Playoffs. We are at the part of the season where the contenders get separated from the pretenders. Teams that looked hot earlier in the year suddenly lose games you wouldn’t expect, and teams that looked close to elimination earlier in the year find themselves in great shape. And some teams are already looking to next year.
The word for this week is: Perceptions. Warning: W/L records may not actually as good or bad as they appear early in the season.

First, the obligatory quick look at the yardage rankings:

Offense / Defense
Denver 5th (363) T-23rd (327)
KC 2nd (372) 27th (334)
Oakland 14th (329) T-23rd (327)
SD 6th (359) 12th (311)

Both Denver and Kansas City improved in the offense rankings, with the Chiefs jumping all the way up to #2. Logically, the Chiefs and the Broncos should also drop in defensive rankings, and they did. Kansas City dropped 5 places from 22nd to 27th. San Diego didn’t change spots at all.

Scoring Offense / Defense
Denver 6th (25.8) 10th (18.4)
Kansas City 7th (25.1) 21st (21.4)
Oakland 15th (20.8) 27th (24.7)
San Diego 2nd (29.8) 12th (19.1)

The biggest change here was Denver’s scoring defense dropping several slots based on Kansas City scoring 31 points against them.

DENVER: We were talking about perceptions. Denver opened the season with a humilating loss, and I figured they were going to struggle this year. Then they won a few close games, humiliated KC, and looked pretty good at 5-1 and 9-2. When you have that good of a record, people tend to forget that sometimes how you won wasn’t very dominating. And then Denver went into Arrowhead and lost a game that was close on the scoreboard, but featured Kansas City taking control in the 4th quarter, holding Denver to zero 3rd down conversions and 6 points in the entire second half. And the perception is that maybe the Broncos aren’t as good anymore.

QB: Plummer: 211/343 (61.5%) for 2512 yds, 7.3 yds/att, 15 TDs, 6 INTs, 91.2 QB rating.
He played a decent game, although the two interceptions were key in their loss. The one deep in their own territory gave KC 3 points, and the other in KC’s end zone took away a possible TD. Is Jake reverting to form, or was this just how he plays when he’s behind? Remembering his years in Arizona, I’d have to say the latter. Note to the remaining teams on the schedule: use whatever trick plays or go-to calls you can to get a 10-point lead, and let Jake Plummer win the game for you.

RB: Bell: 111 for 686 yds, 6.2 avg, 5 TD
Anderson: 200 for 850 yds, 4.3 avg 9 TD
You have to wonder if there’s a chance the Broncos don’t get a 1,000-yard rusher this year. It’s only a mathematical chance…Anderson hasn’t rushed for more than 37 yards the last two weeks. At this pace, he’d miss 1,000 yards by 2. Bell is 314 yards short. Easily achieved in the final 4 games if he’s a starter…but he’s a backup who hasn’t rushed for more than 46 yards in the last four games; continuing that trend, he wouldn’t make it, either. So, yeah, Shanahan’s ego is such that he has to have a 1,000-yard back this year. If either Bell or Anderson are close, Shanahan will try to make sure he gets it. And both could still get 1,000 yards, if they average 116 yards between them in the right proportion. But with the emergence of Dayne…? And another injury to either or both would make the 1,000 goal difficult.

WR: Rod Smith: 63 for 802 yds, 12.7 avg, 5 TD
Lelie: 31 for 559 yds, 18.0 avg, 1 TD
Putzier: 31 for 397, 12.8, 0 TD
It’s strange to see these kind of numbers (low) for a Broncos’ WR corps this late in the season. Denver may have only 1 WR or TE that gets even 50 catches. But Rod Smith is having a good season, and should easily go ever 1000 yards. The Broncos may be in trouble if he ever decides to retire. Lelie is a decent #2 WR who has a disconcerting tendency to disappear at times. But he’s good for 2-3 excellent games each year. Putzier should be starting, but the depth chart still shows “Alexander”.

O-line: They only gave up 2 sacks, and one of those was on a WR option pass, so really shouldn’t be tagged on the O-line. They led the way for 131 yards rushing and 4.5 yards/rush. But I saw a few plays that Lepsis was absolutely blown up by Ryan Sims, and even 1 sack and 2 INTs seems excessive for a QB as mobile as Plummer. Then again, they’ve only given up 16 sacks all year.

D-line: Not a good performance from the D-line, with Pryce leading the way with 3 tackles, Warren with 2, and the rest with 1, and no sacks. Of course, Roaf and Welbourn were in the line-up this game, the KC O-line was playing well, Trent was getting rid of the ball quickly and accurately, and Larry Johnson was usually past them before they could tackle.

LBs: They played well, as they usually do. Ian Gold had an eye-popping 10 solo tackles to lead the team. DJ Williams had 6 and Al Wilson had 3. No sacks, no INTs, no FFs…and no big plays from the game I can remember.

DBs: CB Champ Bailey and D. Williams each added an INT. Bailey has 7 for the season. He should start in the pro-bowl, and has fully confirmed his status as a top-notch corner. Except that he was absolutely burned on Dante Hall’s TD catch, and apparently came over late on Gonzalez’ TD catch, as well.

Significant Injuries: Starting DE Courtney Brown is Questionable.

Outlook: Despite the negative paragraph to open the Broncos section, they are still in great shape. They are 9-3, and if they win out, they will have the #2 seed in AFC playoffs, earning a 1st-round bye and a home playoff game. And if the Colts stumble, Denver would host the AFC Championship. They could lose a game and still be the #2 seed, but they’d need to have SD and KC and Cincinnati all lose at least one more game. 3 of their final 4 opponents currently have a 4-8 record. The 4th is San Diego. In San Diego. Ending up 12-3 will be a challenge. If one of the 4-8 teams plays exceptionally well, Denver could easily end up at 11-5. That could leave them as anywhere from the AFC Champ to out of the playoffs, depending on how everyone else plays.

KANSAS CITY:
We were talking about perceptions. Kansas City looked nearly out of it when they lost to a fairly weak Buffalo team to drop to 5-4. What made the loss worse that KC failed to even score a TD, and lost by 11 points despite nearly doubling the Bills’ yards. It was both the record and the way they lost that looked bad. Since then, Kansas City has reeled off 3 straight, including a domination of Houston (no big deal, they’ve only won 1 game), a domination of New England (no big deal, they have lots of injuries…ignoring that they’d be on a 4-game win streak if they hadn’t lost to KC), and a strong win over Denver (no big deal, because…well, wait, it’ll come to me). Denver lost a humiliating game to Miami, and it was a fluke. KC lost a humilating game to Denver, and it was supposedly indicative what kind of season KC would have. We’ll talk about the future at the end of this section.

QB: Green 240/383 (62.7%) for 2947 yds., 7.7 yd/att, 13 TD, 9 INT for a 87.9 rating
Three good games in a row for Green. The second half of the season is always better than the first with this guy. Still, he’s throwing too many INTs. I wouldn’t call him “TrINT”, but he needs to be more careful for the Chiefs to win out and do well in the playoffs.

RB:
L Johnson: 221 for 1108 yds, 5.0 avg, 11 TD
“Yet another 100-yard game. Yet another game with 30+ carries. I know he’s young and wants it — refuses to come out of the game, in fact! — ” That’s a quote from last week. Still true for another week, except that this time he did take himself out for one play. Some controversy over that, because it was an important 3rd and 1, and his backup, Dee Brown, didn’t get it. Personally, I don’t blame him. He got 90 yards in the 4th quarter alone, which is a good game for most people, and with the way the Broncos played that, I don’t think even LJ would have gotten that yard. I’d also like to point out that he has 709 yards after just 5 starts. That’s on pace for a 2240 yard season! Can we call the “Penn State Curse” broken now?

WR: Kennison: 52 for 819 yds, 15.8 avg, 4 TDs
Wow! Another great game. He’s just about certain to go over 1,000 yards again. He’s playing better, and smarter than ever. A few more years of this, and people will start calling him an “ageless wonder”.
Hall: 26 for 331 yds, 12.7 avg, 3 TD
Only 2 catches. But one for a 41-yard TD. And he burned Champ Bailey…they should give you extra points for that.
Parker: 20 for 293 yds, 14.7 avg, 2 TDs
A good game by Parker. He’s improved during the season, and should be a strong #2 for KC for years to come. Well worth the 4th round pick we got him for just last year.

TEs:
Gonzalez: 59 for 643 yds, 10.9 avg, 2 TD
Only one catch…but for a 25-yd TD catch. It contributed to a win, so I’ll take that.

Dunn: 4 for 51 yds, 12.8 avg, 0 TD
Wilson: 3 for 33 yds, 11.0 avg, 0 TD
I could have sworn Dunn had a TD catch this year…but maybe I’m thinking of last year. Or channeling the Super Bowl! [grin] Wilson got another catch, a short pass in the flat he turned into 11 yards with a strong run-after-the-catch. Despite complaints from some KC fans, the Chiefs have lots of guys that can get open, between Gonzalez, Hall, Kennison, Parker, Horn, Johnson…I think Wilson will be there when Kansas City needs him.

O-Line: Roaf was fully back. Welbourn also played a good game. Everyone played well across the whole line. Larry Johnson has a burst to get through the hole, sure, but these guys kept the D-line (and sometimes the LBs, too!) off of Johnson at the line of scrimmage. No sacks for the Broncos at all. And play after play, the pocket formed nearly perfectly around Green. They are looking and playing like the best line in the NFL again. Like I said last week, the O-line, as a group, is peaking and getting healthy at the best possible time.

D-line: Hicks still plays solid, but not as quiet against the Broncos. Allen got pressure, and even seemed to take on the function of a rush LB in a 3-4…even though the line-up was still like a 4-3. That’s a bit of versatility I don’t think the coaches ever imagined when they drafted him in the 4th round last year. 14 solo tackles from the D-line, including 5 (!) from Browning, 3 from Allen, 2 from Sims, 2 and a half sack from Hicks…You can’t ask for more from a D-line against a team as mobile and skilled at misdirection as the Broncos.

LBs: Johnson had a monster sack, coming in so fast Plummer never had a chance. He had 4 solo tackles, and Mitchell led the team with 7 solo tackles and an INT. Bell was invisible in the stats…But I have to think that Bell and Johnson did most of their hard work in pass coverage. Still, Kawika Mitchell served notice that he may be the best MLB in the AFC West.

DBs: wesley and Warfield both had 6 tackles. Surtain was burned badly once, but also got an important INT in the end zone. Knight was quiet except for sharing a sack of Rod Smith with Hicks on a trick play. Still, you have to love what Warfield is doing. He came out of college as a Safety with CB speed and good coverage skills, drafted in the 7th round. He took a few years to figure out the CB position, but he not only gets good INT numbers, but is strong in the running game and lays big hits on WRs when possible. He may not be a shut-down corner, but he’s solid in every phase of the game, and may be the most complete CB in the AFC right now. Then again, I haven’t spent a whole lot of time looking at CB tackling stats, so I could easily be wrong.

Defense (as a whole): Last week I said Denver would be the first real test. The Defense passed easily, albeit with a few mistakes. Dallas may find it hard to move the ball against these guys, and Drew may spend a good portion of the game on his back.

Special Teams: Dante Hall isn’t really a weapon this year. Special teams coverage and blocking has dropped off significantly. Some games it seems like there’s a penalty on nearly every return, but Hall hasn’t really come that close to breaking returns very often, even with the holds and illegal blocks. If he turns it on and has a hot stretch to end the regular season or in the playoffs, it would provide a significant boost to a team whose offense is clicking and defense is getting strong in a hurry.

Significant Injuries: DE Carlos Hall (Hamstring) and FS Jerome Woods (Hamstring) are both Questionable.

Outlook: Sometimes it matters as much when you play a team as much as who you play. Having the Eagles on your schedule now would certainly better than in the first 4 games of the season. Oakland would probably be better now, too. Kansas City hit Buffalo in Buffalo right before they collapsed, Denver in Denver just as they were getting hot, San Diego in San Diego right after they started to turn their season around, and Philedelphia before TO melted down and they lost their entire starting lineup to season-ending injuries. And 2 of the losses came when the Chiefs were missing Roaf, Warfield, and Welbourn! On the other hand, KC might be catching Dallas on the verge of a confidence-wilting collapse. And another way to look at it is that KC’s remaining opponents should be trembling about facing a hot KC offense and play-making KC defense. If the Chiefs wins out, it will be forgotten that they were ever 5-4 and a certain Chiefs Coalition columnist was one game from writing off their season.

OAKLAND:
Last week: “Oakland still might have a winning season, if they win out. Why are you laughing?” That didn’t last long, huh? I don’t know if I should even talk about them the rest of the season, except that they still play Denver and the Giants, which could have a big effect on AFC playoff seeding.

QB: Tuiasosopo: 0 for 0, (0%) for 0 yds., 0.0 yds/att, 0 TDs, 0 INTs, for a 0.0 rating.
We were talking about perception, right? Through 8 or so games this season, Collins was looking like a Pro-Bowl player due to his yards and lack of INTs. He had 12 TDs to only 3 INTs. Then he played Denver and his numbers have been sinking ever since. Now that the Raiders can’t have a winning season, they are benching Collins (apparently for being a loser) to see what they have in Tuiasosopo. Which is bad enough to spell, I’m glad I don’t cover Cincinnati and their WR, TJ Houshdlkjsdflk;jafsoasnnaavamamaaiamsdaflafa-sf9. So maybe he can throw to Jerry Porter better than Collins could to Randy Moss, and the Raiders might surprise the Broncos? It would be nice, but not likely.

RB: Jordan: 233 for 844 yds, 3.6 avg, 9 TD
12 more carries than Larry Johnson, 7 more starts; 264 less yards, 2 less rushing TDs (equal overall). This is not the performance the Raiders hoped for when they picked him up. Still, he added two rushing TDs to his total against the Dolphins. This is the guy I’d bench first, before Collins. His 3.6 yd average has done worse things for their W/L record than anything Collins did in the first 8 games, and probably had a lot to do with Collins INT totals, since defenses didn’t have to honor the run. I’ll go on record saying they will never win a playoff game with Jordan as their starting RB, and may never even make the playoffs without replacing him.

WR: Moss: 45 for 771 yds, 17.1 avg, 5 TD.
Randy Moss isn’t the best WR in the AFC West. Every team has at least one better WR than Moss. He’s arguably not even the best WR on his own team. Maybe if he’d played his whole career in the AFC West instead of the NFC, he wouldn’t have even a single pro-bowl appearance?
Porter: 56 for 770 yds, 13.8 avg, 4 TD.
Still the best player on the team. It’s not good that his strongest competitor for that title is the punter.
Jordan: 61 for 493 yds, 8.1 avg, 2 TD.
The poor man’s LT looked quite poor in a game against the real LT.

Defense: With the way the defense has played recently, it’s impressive that they held the Chargers to only 34 points in San Diego. Rookie LB K. Morrison had 12 tackles. It would be impressive if he’d done that in leading them to a win a close or loss…losing by 24 points, it merely seems almost pathetic, like the rest of the team gave up. They did sack Brees twice, which isn’t easy. And Burgess has 11 sacks (zero against the Chargers), which is excellent for a whole season, much less when there are still 4 games to go.

Significant Injuries: G Walker is on injured reserve. CB Woodson is still Out. SS Cooper, DT Washington, and C Grove are all Questionable.

Outlook: Sometimes a 2nd stringer coming off the bench can do wonders for a team. Tuiasosopo has looked good in some games, like when he came off the bench for Gannon (against KC, naturally). But he doesn’t have much to work with, so it’s unlikely they’ll win a game for the rest of the season. 5-11 or 4-12 is looking about right again, after a mid-season semi-surge.

SAN DIEGO:
The Chargers had a losing record leading into their 8th game. They were a mediocre 4-4 at the halfway point. Then they won 5 in a row to end up 8-4, keeping up with KC to resurrect their season and challenge for a wildcard. If they win out, they’d be tied with Denver for the AFC West title and a game ahead of KC. But after what appears to be a fairly easy game against Miami at home, they have a brutal end to their season: They have to go into Indianapolis, then go into Kansas City, and then get a home game to close out the regular season…but against the Broncos!

QB: Brees: 240/368 (65.2%) for 2813 yds., 7.6 yd/att, 20TD, 11 INT for a 93.9 rating
He had an excellent game against the Raiders. Then again, who doesn’t? Still, he did it with LT going out with an injury. He’ll probably do well against Miami, but look for him to have bad games against the Chiefs (multiple INTs) and the Colts (multiple sacks).

RB: LT: 261 for 1172 yds, 4.5 avg, 17 TD
A sub-par game for LT against the Raiders. But he did go out with an injury, and that prevented him from getting the yards in the 4th, like most feature backs do.

WR:
Gates: 63 for 874 yds, 13.9 avg, 8 TD
He just keeps adding to his totals. He didn’t have a great game against the Raiders, but it was enough to solidify his reputation as the best TE in football, in an era of excellent TEs.
McCardell: 48 for 662 yds, 13.8 avg, 7 TD
…make that 5 solid weeks in a row. One of the many AFC WRs better than Randy Moss this year.
Parker: 38 for 505 yards, 13.3 avg, 3 TD
Decent game for a #3 WR.
LT: 42 for 339 yards, 8.1 avg, 2 TD

O-Line: Still gave up 2 sacks to the Raiders. Charger RBs had only a 3.5 yd/carry average. They still lack consistency.

D-Line: 2 sacks from the DT. Everyone else was pretty quiet. Olshansky had one good play that I remember, but the ends seemed mostly shut out of the game.

LBs: What impresses me most about this LB corps is their depth. 23 tackles in the game from 6 different LBs. I know that isn’t an impressive average, and I know they run a 3-4 (which tends to feature LBs). But what impresses me is that Edwards leads the team with 79 solo tackles and 2 sacks plus 2 INTs, Godfrey right behind with 40 solo tackles and 1 sack and 3 fumble recoveries. Then Shawne Merriman has 31 solo tackles and 7 sacks, and Foley has 22 tackles and 3.5 sacks. Then you get into the backups: Wilhelm has 19 solo tackles and a sack and an INT, Shaun Phillips has 22 solo tackles and 6 sacks and a fumble recovery, and Cooper has 22 solo tackles and 1.5 sacks. Leber had 19 solo tackles, 2 sacks, and a fumble recovery before a season-ending injury that landed him on the Injured Reserve. How many teams have 10.5 sacks from their starting LBs, much less that plus 82 solo tackles from their backups? Any one of these guys is capable of making a game-changing play at any time. That’s impressive.

DBs: When SS Kiel went down with an injury, backup Clinton Hart picked up the secondary’s first INT in weeks, and also forced a fumble. He may be hard to get out of the starting lineup.

Special Teams: Solid. Kaeding didn’t miss, Scifires did a good job, they got good returns from everyone.

Significant injuries: SS Kiel (Ankle), T Oben (Foot), and RB LaDainian Tomlinson (Chest) are all Questionable.

Outlook: 8-8 is not impossible for the Chargers, but it would be embarassing. Even 9-7 could be considered respectable with close losses against Indy, KC, and Denver. I do think they’ll end up 10-6, with the all AFC West games being won by the home team (except the Raiders, who will have lost all AFC West games), and a loss to the red-hot Colts in a shoot-out. 11-5 is likely, and could result in a wildcard game…except that the Jags, Chiefs, Broncos, and Steelers could also all be 11-5, and then the tie-breakers are impossibly complex. Chargers do control their own destiny: win out, and they’re in. I just don’t think they have played consistently enough to do it. Their winning streak was mostly at home, and mostly against weak teams.

Bottom Line: The whole AFC race for wildcard slots cleared up a little, with Pittsburgh losing to Cincinnati and looking about ready to spiral out of the race. Jacksonville won again to go 9-3, but without Leftwich, I still think they are ripe for a collapse to end up 10-6 and out of the playoffs, despite a fairly easy closing schedule; they should lose to Indianapolis for sure.

Even more than last week, it’s looking like a 12-4 record will win the West. We’ve already talked about Denver losing one more to San Diego, so the West Championship will go to whoever wins out, I’m 90% certain. It would depend on how the tiebreakers end up between KC and Denver. Then, if KC wins out and wins the tiebreaker over Denver, KC would also win the tiebreaker over Cincinnati due to the head-to-head win and get the #2 seed and a 1st round bye.

Much less complicated than last week. For all three teams, win out and not only win the West but get the #2 Playoff seed. It only gets complicated if all teams lose one game (mostly depending on who the loss is to), or trying to guess who the wildcard teams will be. Cincinnati could still collapse and let Pittsburgh win the North. Or Pittsburgh could complete their spiral and be out of it. Jacksonvill could continue to rally behind Gerrard and take a wildcard slot, or show they can’t win without Leftwich. Two weeks ago it looked like the AFC West teams were going to have to win the division to have a chance to be in the playoffs, with no wildcard teams coming from the West. The subsequent 2-game losing streak by the Steelers and Leftwich’s injury has changed that, and with 2 losses hung on the Jags out of the last 4 games, both wildcard slots would probably go to the AFC West.

Last week I said: “I expect Pittsburgh, Denver, and Cincinnati to all end up no better than 11-5, and San Diego and Jacksonville to end up no better than 10-6.” I still think that’s an accurate statement based on the final games, but I have to admit that “expect” is a little strong. It’s not so much that I think those teams are clearly of that level (both Cincy and Denver have mostly looked like 12-4 or 13-3 teams recently), it’s just that I think both teams will lose at least one upset, while KC will win out. It’s more about momentum and peaking and letting down, and I think KC’s losses earlier in the season will keep them from letting down now, but Denver and Cincy haven’t really been truly tested yet. Still, no matter how the playoff seeding shake out, I think KC will be very dangerous and capable of beating any team in the field on the road. But it’s nearly impossible to do it 2 or even 3 games in a row in a field this strong, so I still think KC needs to win out and take the AFC West Championship to have a good chance for the Super Bowl. That means we need help from either San Diego, or Jake Plummer. That’s a pretty good bet, the way things look after last week’s results.